by David Lee King on March 9, 2009
Two posts caught my eye over the past couple of days, and they’re still rumbling around inside my head … let’s see if I can pull a couple thoughts out of the cacophony.
Both posts discuss how lots of industries are at the beginnings of huge restructuring/remaking themselves or are disappearing entirely, and how much of our lives will seem like upheaval until the “new normal” is reached. No one’s exactly sure what “normal” will look like (after the recession and remaking is over) – but everyone’s sure it will be completely different from now.
Here’s the first article, and the main one setting off thoughts for me: The Great Restructuring, by Jeff Jarvis. Jeff talks about our recession – first quoting Umair Haque calling it a great “compression … as an economy built on perceived value reconciles with actual value.”
Jeff also mentions this article from the New York Times and ends up calling our current recession a “great restructuring.” Then, he lists thoughts about quite a few industries and their future. Here’s a partial list of them:
- America may well not be in the auto industry soon.
- Financial services will have to be completely remade
- Newspapers will vanish
- Magazines are in worse shape than I would have guessed and many will go
- Books’ channels of manufacturing, distribution, and sales will go through upheaval
- Broadcast media will become meaningless, replaced by digital delivery
- Large-scale retail will shrink and consolidate and then be transformed by a search-and-buy economy
- The blockbuster economy in entertainment will become harder to support as more attention and money shifts to the tail.
- We should be so lucky that elementary and secondary education will also face such pressure.
And that’s just a few (go read the article for the whole list and some great thoughts).
Here’s the second article raising a ruckus in my head: Big Music Will Surrender, But Not Until At Least 2011 from TechCrunch. This article mainly gives a music executive’s perspective of coming changes for his industry, and how they currently plan to figure it out. So it’s one industry’s perspective on how change will ultimately play out for them. Interesting take.
My question to you – are you ready?
Look at that list from the first article: books, magazines, newspapers, media. All going through huge changes, all going to be remade. And all stuff that’s near and dear to our librarian hearts!
Some of these changes are already starting, you know:
- Newspapers and Magazines have already started going digital. It’s just a matter of time before more/most decide to stop printing that paper thing and go completely digital.
- Books… {David quickly ducks} DON’T freak out! Of course I think people will still read books. That’s a given. But have you looked around lately and seen the Amazon Kindle? Or the iPhone ebook reader that millions of people are now carrying around? I have a book on mine to read right now. Those 300-page paper things will eventually turn digital – because it’s simply a container for the content – not the content itself.
- Music and movies – think LPs/8-Tracks, Cassettes, CDs or super 8, 16 ml, vcr, DVD … and compare that to iTunes or Netflix emerging subscription models. Also going digital!
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg for libraries – most of our huge buildings exist to primarily hold physical stuff. What will we do when there’s no physical stuff to hold? Will you still be able to justify that large building? That staff? (My answer to that is yes, you can … if you are planning for change now).
How are you starting to re-think your services and libraries? My library is in the middle of strategic planning, and we’re going to tackle that whole “re-think everything” approach. Looks like Darien Library has been doing that, too. How about you?
Closing thought – I live in lucky times – I get to see … basically … my whole life change before my eyes. And I get to help it change.
Bonus reading:
- An interesting article on remaking education
- This post is where I found the title of for my article … good post, too – focuses on economic stuff
Tagged as:
change,
future,
recession,
rethinking,
revolution
by David Lee King on December 12, 2005
Update to the update: never mind – I figured it out.
Update: for some odd reason, I can’t seem to make a direct link to the blog post… the link to the actual blog is below – anyone know the direct link? Thanks!
I thought this was cool: Working Smart: The Death of Traditional Book Publishing.
Michael Hyatt is the CEO of Thomas nelson Publishers, a large christian publishing house. He has an interesting blog (frequently discusses GTD stuff, for those GTD fans). But this post is discussing the future of the paper book. Here’s a wonderful quote:
“While most publishers will admit that reference content is better accessed on the computer, almost all believe that the traditional non-fiction book or novel will never be replaced with a digital equivalent. I say, “baloney.” ”
It’s nice to see a forward-thinking CEO of a publishing house! He goes even further, and provides his ideal device – here are a few of his ideas:
- It looks similar to a tablet PC slate. No keyboard, no monitor, and it folds in half.
- It is the same size and thickness as a hardcover book, say 6″ by 9″ by 1/2″. Unfolded, it is 12″ x 9″ by 1/4″. It feels great in your lap. It can even be bent slightly like a book, so you can curl up on the sofa and read away.
- It uses a tablet PC interface with a built-in stylus that feels like a high-end pen. You can use it to make menu selections, enter text (via handwriting recognition), or highlight passages in books.
- It has a battery life of 12–18 hours.
- It completely replaces your computer and runs all your favorite applications.
- It has 256 gigabytes of flash drive storage. It has room for tens of thousands of songs, photos, movies—and books. Because it has no moving parts (unlike a hard drive), it is faster and more reliable.
- It includes a software application similar to iTunes for the purchase and download of books. Heck, maybe it’s just a modification of iTunes.
- It has a docking station that allows you to use a keyboard, mouse, external monitor, etc.
- It runs an Apple operating system. (obviously, he’s a Mac fan, too)
This isn’t really that far away from reality – combine the iPod Nano and some type of e-paper that’s being tested now, and you pretty much have what Hyatt is discussing.
So check out the post, and see what happens in the next few years. if publishing houses are talking like this, they’re preparing for change (hmm… that sounds familiar…). We should be, too.
by David Lee King on November 28, 2005
One good way is to get an article on the front page of the Kansas City Star!
Good article (Saturday edition), did I mention FRONT PAGE, good marketing.
by David Lee King on July 26, 2005
Just received a comment on one of my posts, “Luddites have XML Feeds, too!” … from, of course “Annonymous.” Here’s the comment:
I think, also, it is important to point out to those who are concerned about disappearing printed materials that the rise of new media/technology (radio, television, telephone, phonograph, audio and video cassettes, cds, dvds, etc.) has never supplanted all of our old and familiar means of transmitting and storing information. The printed book will likely outlast every new innovation in technology simply because it is an irreplaceable part of human culture. There is no need for fear mongering or even mild concern. Luddites should sit back and relax. Once upon a time, the written word was considered an innovation beyond the spoken word. We all still talk to each other, however.
Hmm… where to start? First, my take on the printed book. A Book is a large body of text. Paper is one of many ways to display that large body of text. Books used to be stored on leather scrolls. Thankfully, people figured out bound paper worked better.
I think we’re seeing the beginning of moving away from paper to electronic form. I can now read a book in paper, on my PDA, on a cell phone, at my PC, in email form, using an e-book reader, etc. It’s still a book – just not in paper.
Now, to deal with the comment itself:
“…the rise of new media/technology (radio, television, telephone, phonograph, audio and video cassettes, cds, dvds, etc.) has never supplanted all of our old and familiar means of transmitting and storing information.”
I wonder if Anonymous has heard of a relatively new-fangled invention called an Online Public Access Catalog? I believe the OPAC has supplanted the “old and familiar means,” don’t you think? Also, the typewriter has been supplanted by the computer.
And… does the printed word actually “transmit?” That I’d like to see.
“The printed book will likely outlast every new innovation in technology simply because it is an irreplaceable part of human culture.”
Hmm… “irreplaceable part of human culture” …. that’d be sorta like:
- Horses and carriages
- morse code
- LPs
- Cowhide and pottery shards for writing material
- Pants that ended at the knee
- Plows
- Swords as weapons
NOTHING IS IRREPLACEABLE. Longlasting, yes. Irreplaceable? No.
“There is no need for fear mongering or even mild concern.” and “Luddites should sit back and relax.”
Hey, I actually agree…
“Once upon a time, the written word was considered an innovation beyond the spoken word. We all still talk to each other, however.”
Apples and oranges… apples and oranges… Annonymous, the point of your comment is about paper-based information, so you can’t logically use the spoken word as support for your argument.
I have had fun with this comment, to be sure. But I’m hoping someone learns something from this post, too. As I once heard someone say, “eat the meat, and throw out the bones.”
by David Lee King on February 23, 2005
Found via the engadget blog, via the jkOnTheRun blog, a story about the South Huntington Public Library in New York lending out iPod Shuffles pre-loaded with audiobooks. That is one extremely hip project!
I know a few mac lovers that might get jealous…
by David Lee King on January 26, 2005
I just read this at LISNews:
“A Piece From India Says In the age of internet, books would continue to dominate the minds of readers for taking society forward. This from West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharjee said today. Speaking at the inauguration of 30th Kolkata Book Fair here, Bhattacharjee said the importance of books would not be undermined, adding that the print media was one of the important pillars of culture.”
He’s not getting it. I’m reading The Picture of Dorian Gray right now. On my PDA. It’s still a book, just not on paper. And I downloaded it. From the Internet.
Whatever.
